16 Mar 09 The Costello Enigma

It seems Peter Costello is determined to keep everyone guessing as to his leadership aspirations. It has been revealed in an anonymous phone poll that Costello now leads the current Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull a considerable margin by as many as 8 party room votes. Is it the case that Costello really doesn’t have the guts to make a run at the leadership or is he playing a very clever game? If Costello was really so desperate to be leader, why did he not accept it after Howard was ousted when it was certain to be handed to him on a platter? Is he really just doing nothing as he has repeatedly claimed?

Costello might well have become Liberal Party leader as long ago as 1994 after John Hewson’s electoral loss to Paul Keating. Costello was to astute to step into the breach at what he probably considered an inopportune time and allowed Alexander Downer to take control. Downer’s leadership was a short lived debacle and effectively ended his chances of ever becoming Prime Minister, although anyone who took the leadership after losing the ‘unlosable election’ was likely to have a very difficult time. Costello certainly desired the leadership towards the end of John Howard’s Prime Ministership but never had the numbers and was too astute to make an embarrassing and unsuccessful challenge.

Why didn’t Costello accept the leadership when it was his for the taking after Howard’s 2007 loss? Because he was fully aware that who ever took the leadership after such a disastrous loss would be nothing more than a fall guy. Brendan Nelson’s leadership was no more inspiring than Downer’s a decade before. Costello allowed Malcolm Turnbull to take the leadership again, because he did not consider the time to be right. Turnbull’s current troubles would seem to bear this out and it is now looking more likely than ever that Costello will finally become Liberal leader. He would hardly have remained in politics if he did not at some time intend to show his hand.

Could Costello really have played a waiting game for this long? Could it be that Costello has a very grandiose opinion of himself and sees himself as going down in history as a great Prime Minister, perhaps even the greatest?. Howard may have outlasted Menzies but his ignominious defeat certainly tarnished his legacy. Costello may well see himself as being the one to outshine even pig iron Bob. For this reason, timing has been of tantamount importance. Accepting the leadership at the wrong time might well have been worse than never accepting it at all.

The Liberals once thought that Bronwyn Bishop had electoral appeal but were proved to be very mistaken. Can the Liberals really believe people are ever likely to forgive Work Choices? The greatest enigma of all might be the Liberal perception of Peter Costello as a potential election winner.